I am delighted to participate at the Raisina@Tokyo. Let me begin by thanking ORF, JBIC and Keizai Doyukai for their collaboration, specifically Samir, Maeda San and Niinami San, for their leadership in this particular enterprise.
This session is about how India and Japan, who enjoy a special strategic and global partnership, intend to meet the challenges facing the global order. There are many aspects to this subject and I will flag eight points that I believe are worthy of debate.
2. The first pertains to the order itself, created by the accumulation of political and economic rebalancing, accelerated by globalization and now reflected in emerging multi-polarity. Whatever metrics we use – GDP, technology, influence, or demography – the top 20 or 30 nations today, are not what they were two decades ago. Even less so what they were 4 or 8 decades ago. Not only are the countries that impact us different, but so are their relative weight, importance and capability. As a result, new balances are being sought and occasionally achieved. This drives the volatility that we currently characterise as the global order.
3. The second refers to the structure of the order. That has frayed in many ways, becoming less predictable or even less disciplined. In fact, there is a considerable amount of disorder. It has become much harder to create a consensus among more players, especially as they do not agree on their inter se position. What we see in multilateralism, especially the United Nations, is both an expression of this as well as a cause. Consequently, we are turning increasingly to like-minded partners who gather together for a particular purpose.
4. The third is in regard to the landscape. After 1945, these were neatly compartmentalized into theatres for the convenience of dominant powers. That has begun to change as capabilities are constrained and commitments come into question. A more modest era requires greater collaboration. And it also requires wider arenas to be effective. A good example of this is the emergence of the Indo-Pacific.
5. Fourth, there are the different challenges that we confront. Three decades of globalization have created tremendous economic and technology concentrations, which now have major strategic implications. These have led to the leveraging of trade, of investment, connectivity, resources and even of mobility. In many cases, the nature of power itself has undergone a change. This has been aggravated further by the impact of technology. National boundaries no longer provide effective defence. On the contrary, every technology advance – AI or chips, green or clean tech, space or drones – has also brought its own new vulnerabilities. Few nations can deal with it on their own. At the same time, the competition for primacy has also become more intense.
6. Fifth, to add to this mix is a shift in global attitudes. The unequal benefits of globalization and the stagnation in the quality of life for many societies, has created political backlash. The trauma of the Covid has made the world even more insecure. We have all experienced what it is to depend on others for basic necessities. Strategic autonomy is therefore sought by many more countries and regions.
7. Sixth, in this background, it is not surprising that global risk taking has been on the increase. We see it in conflict in Europe, in disregard for international law in Asia, and in the ongoing developments in the Middle East and often in the weaponization of the normal. Longstanding agreements are not being necessarily observed, raising question marks about the stability of the environment in which we all operate.
8. Seventh, the most universal expression of the global order is still the United Nations. Its reform is therefore of paramount importance. As fellow members of the G4 grouping, India and Japan seek to make the UN structures more contemporary. This is clearly an uphill task but one in which we must persevere.
9. As to powers that are so central to multi-polarity in Asia, it is also in our common interest that the overall balance remains in favour of freedom, openness, transparency and a rules-based order. The world will watch how we support each other in this shared goal through various relationships and initiatives, which Prime Minister Kishida mentioned at length, is particularly important in this regard.
10. And eighth, I think it is important that Japan today appreciates the pace of change in India. This is a country today which is building 28 kilometers of highway everyday, which is creating 8 new airports every year, which is establishing 1.5 to 2 metros every year, which has for the last 10 years built 2 new colleges every day, and which has doubled its technical and medical institutions and output. This transformation of India makes us a more effective and credible partner. Whether it is the ease of doing business, infrastructure development, ease of living, digital delivery, a startup and innovation culture or shaping the international agenda, India is clearly a very different country today. This is important for Japanese to recognize.
11. Summing it all up, the world is now more volatile, uncertain, unpredictable and open-ended. This is the prospect that India and Japan have to confront, both from their national perspectives as well as from the point of view of their relationship. Can we safeguard stability, security, freedom, progress and prosperity for ourselves, for the larger region, and indeed, for the world?
12. So with that in mind, there are a few propositions that are worth examining:
(i) Can our economic weight be a greater stabilizing factor? Between India and Japan trade has stagnated but investments has been much more dynamic. Is there scope for a big jump? And I refer here to what Niinami San said, that today Make in India and Export from India, are two possibilities which should be explored by Japanese companies.
(ii) The deployment of technologies that are on the horizon is clearly going to be a game changer. Is there scope for collaboration in that regard? Obvious examples are the semiconductor domain, electric mobility, renewables, Artificial Intelligence and space. But can we build the necessary talent connect?
(iii) As two nations with strong climate change priorities, can we develop practical cooperation in support of our global objectives. Japan has a history of involvement with logistics and mass transportation in India. While our energy trajectories may have been separate so far, green hydrogen and green ammonia are bringing many potential partners together. Are these new areas worth exploring?
(iv) Connectivity is also acquiring greater salience with new production and consumption centres. India is today working on major corridors, both to its East and to its West. They include, on the West, the IMEC initiative through the Arabian peninsula, and the International North South Transport Corridor. And to the East, the Trilateral highway in South East Asia and the Chennai-Vladivostok route that also has polar implications. Now, bear in mind, these corridors, when they are completed, essentially would connect the Atlantic to the Pacific, through Asia. Our two nations have converging views about the need for transparent and collaborative connectivity. So how can we collaborate in this domain?
(v) In a world where global commons and global good is being short changed everyday, greater development efforts by the more capable international players is imperative. As a voice of the Global South, India is particularly conscious of this responsibility. Our development efforts today span 78 nations across different continents. Can India and Japan coordinate in regard to their development assistance?
(vi) The responsibility to safeguard and secure is no less onerous. Maritime safety and security have become particularly pressing concerns. We can see that at the Red Sea everyday. We have just had the first casualties there in shipping. So have issues of cyber security. At the same time, the challenges of the past and the present remain very much with us. Counter-terrorism is a good example. It is also necessary to strengthen our defence capabilities for the benefit of the larger region. This family of defence and security concerns are likely to occupy a larger place in our thinking.
13. Let me conclude with three broad observations. One, the world is heading for re-globalization with building of resilient and reliable supply chains and trusted and transparent digital transactions. India and Japan are natural partners in that regard. Two, as democracies and market economies, we also share basic affinities. Our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific is being taken forward by the Quad with each passing year. The value of this contribution is also being increasingly appreciated across the world. And three, as we look at the opportunities and challenges of the future, the comfort we have built up is a foundation today, to think more ambitiously. The progress in India in the last decade promises even more for our partnership. This gathering has been convened precisely to assess the future of our collaboration. I look forward to its deliberations.
Thank you.